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本文摘要:Pity school careers advisers. If economists are to be believed, vast numbers of jobs will have evaporated by the time today’s pupils reach the labour market. Oxford university’s Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne say almost half of the jobs in the US are at high risk from computerisation in the next two decades, together with two-thirds of those in India and three-quarters in China. 学校的低收入顾问真可怜。


Pity school careers advisers. If economists are to be believed, vast numbers of jobs will have evaporated by the time today’s pupils reach the labour market. Oxford university’s Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne say almost half of the jobs in the US are at high risk from computerisation in the next two decades, together with two-thirds of those in India and three-quarters in China. 学校的低收入顾问真可怜。如果经济学家的话可以坚信,当如今的小学生有朝一日转入劳动力市场时,大量低收入岗位将早已消失。牛津大学(Oxford university)的卡尔贝内迪克兹弗雷(Carl Benedikt Frey)和迈克尔奥斯本(Michael Osborne)称之为,未来二十年,美国完全一半的低收入岗位、印度三分之二的岗位以及中国四分之三的工作都很有可能被计算机代替。

While workers worry about whether robots will take their jobs, teachers are wondering how to use education to insulate the next generation from such a fate. This has worked before. When the last wave of automation swept the developed world at the start of the 20th century, policymakers decided education was the answer. If machines were going to substitute for brawn, they reasoned, more people would need to use their brains. 在劳动者担忧机器人否不会偷走他们的饭碗之际,老师们却在思维如何利用教育使下一代人免受这种命运。这种方法以前顺利过。20世纪初,当上一波自动化浪潮席卷繁盛世界时,政策制定者确认,解决方案是教育。

如果机器将代替人类的体力,他们推测,更加多人将必须专门从事脑力劳动。The US invested heavily in education, with good results. Workers reaped the benefits through better jobs and higher wages. Economists Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson summed it up like this: “The industrial revolution started a race between technology and education — and, for most of the 20th century, humans won that race.” 于是美国乘机投资教育,并获得了很好的效果。

劳动者通过更佳的工作和薪酬待遇取得了益处。经济学家安德鲁麦卡菲(Andrew McAfee)和埃里克布林约尔松(Erik Brynjolfsson)这样总结道:“工业革命打开了科技与教育之间的竞赛——在20世纪的多数时间里,人类是这场竞赛的赢家。” But the next race will be against technology that replaces brains and brawn. Machine learning algorithms are already starting to supplant the likes of mergers and acquisition bankers and currency traders. Some experts argue we need to respond with another fundamental rethink of education. 但是,下一场竞赛的输掉将是同时代替人类的脑力和体力的技术。

机器学习算法早已开始代替收购业务银行家和外汇交易员之类的岗位。一些专家指出,我们必须以再行一次完全反省教育来应付挑战。“School education has tended to focus on developing the core cognitive competences — for example, reading, writing and arithmetic,” said Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, in a recent speech. “Smart machines have long since surpassed humans in their ability to do the first and third of these. And they are fast catching-up on the second. That begs the question of whether there are other skills where humans’ comparative advantage is greater.” “学校教育往往侧重研发核心理解能力——例如,读者、文学创作和算术,”英国央行(Bank of England)首席经济学家安迪霍尔丹(Andy Haldane)在最近一次演说中回应,“智能机器早就在第一项和第三项上打破了人类。


同时它们在第二项上奋起直追。这就引向了一个问题:是不是人类享有更大较为优势的其他技能?” So what skills should we teach our children to robot-proof their careers? 因此,为了让我们的孩子免受被机器人偷走工作的命运,我们应当教给他们什么技能? How to be creative 如何享有创造力 Artificial intelligence tends to solve problems methodically but the human brain is far better at making logical leaps of imagination. It is more intuitive, creative and better at persuasion. Humans can also combine their creativity with robot-surpassing dexterity to cut someone’s hair, for example, or cook a delicious meal. “It’s good to invest in creative education because these are some of the skills that should be left [after automation],” says Stian Westlake, head of policy and research at Nesta, the UK innovation charity. 人工智能往往可以井井有条地解决问题,但是人类大脑在有逻辑地充分发挥想象力、展开跳跃性思维方面要出众得多。

人脑直觉更佳、极具创造性、更加有说服力。人类还可以融合自己的创造力和让机器人望尘莫及的灵活,去给人剪发或者烹饪美食。“投资创造性方面的教育很好,因为创造力归属于(自动化)应当无法代替的技能,”英国国家科技艺术基金会(Nesta)政策和研究主管斯蒂安韦斯特莱克(Stian Westlake)称之为。When you start to look at the world like this, you turn some familiar tropes about global education on their head. 当你开始这样看来世界时,你不会几乎转变对一些有关全球教育的少见比喻的观点。

Mr Westlake says: “It’s a paradoxical story where countries like the UK come out well, because our creative economy is quite strong. We beat ourselves up over our inability to be as good at Singapore and Shanghai at coding and things like this, but actually it turns out it’s quite possible that sort of stuff is going to be the stuff that’s very easy for artificial intelligence to automate.” 韦斯特莱克称之为:“出人意料的是,因为创新经济非常强大,英国等国家不会安然无恙。我们因为自己在编码等方面的能力不如新加坡和上海而苛责自己,但是事实上,这类工作最后很可能会是人工智能很更容易用自动化代替的东西。” How to be nice 情商制胜 Some machines may have learnt how to seem caring but humans still have an unsurpassed ability to empathise with others. The new phrase is “EQ”, which stands for emotional quotient (or emotional intelligence). “The high-skill, high-pay jobs of the future may involve skills better measured by EQs than IQs, by jobs creating social as much as financial value,” the BOE’s Mr Haldane said. 一些机器也许早已学会如何回应关心,但是人类依然享有机器无法打破的“同理”能力。


Whether or not such skills can be taught is an open question. Still, some organisations are giving it a go. ING, the Dutch bank, has recently put 350 staff through an “EQ training programme”. The aim is to teach these bankers how to “build trust with the client through asking lots more questions and listening out for feelings and beliefs as opposed to just listening out for content,” explains Steve Ellis, director at Rogensi, a consultancy that developed the project with ING. 关于这些技能能否传授的问题仍未定论。不过,一些的组织正在尝试。荷兰银行国际集团(ING)最近让350名员工参与了“情商培训课程”。


目的是教这些银行员工如何“通过多托问题、倾听客户的感觉和点子(而非只听得内容),来创建与客户之间的信任,”与ING合作开发该项目的咨询公司rogenSi的主管史蒂夫埃利斯(Steve Ellis)称之为。One of the exercises involves sitting bankers in a room, showing them pictures of people’s facial expressions and asking them to identify the emotion felt. Mark Pieter de Boer, head of financial market sales at ING, admits some bankers were initially resistant. “Typically, what you see is people who are very much IQ-focused struggle with making that change.” 其中一项锻炼是,让银行员工躺在一个房间内,展出一些人们面部表情的图片,让他们辨识这些表情体现的情绪。

ING金融市场销售主管马克彼得德博尔(Mark Pieter de Boer)否认,一些员工一开始有违背心理。“一般情况下,你看见那些十分侧重智商的人很难作出这样的转变。” But he says enthusiasm increased when staff saw the training had results. A survey by the company found people who had been on the course were more motivated, there was greater collaboration between departments and productivity increased by 10 per cent. 但是他称之为,当员工找到训练有效益后,他们的积极性提升了。

该公司的调查找到,参与该课程的员工更加有胆量,部门之间的合作更加流畅,生产率提升了10%。Remember the basics 别忘了基本技能 Even if the promised age of artificial intelligence does arrive, experts say we cannot afford to dispense with hard cognitive skills such as reading, writing and mathematics. 即使人工智能的有福时代最后知道来临,专家称之为我们也无法减免自学读者、文学创作和算术等高难度认知技能。

Daisy Christodoulou, research and development manager at the UK’s Ark Schools chain, says that, unless we have these foundations in place, we will not have the mental frameworks to solve higher-order problems creatively. 英国连锁学校Ark Schools的研发经理黛西克里斯托杜卢(Daisy Christodoulou)称之为,除非掌控这些基本技能,否则我们无法创建起创造性解决问题高阶问题的思维框架。“Even if we do arrive at a point where most work is done by computers, cognitive skills will still matter — not for the economy, but for the successful functioning of a democratic society,” she says. “In such a society, a great deal will turn on the ownership and regulation of the computers and robots doing all the work, and the debates around such issues will require an educated and informed populace.” “即使知道到了计算机已完成大多数工作的那一天,认知技能依然很最重要——不是对于经济而言,而是为了民主社会的成功运转。”她称之为,“在那样的社会中,对已完成所有工作的计算机和机器人的享有和监管将关系根本性,环绕这类问题的辩论将必须接受教育、有科学知识的民众。